Thursday, October 11, 2007

King is the Cash


First came the horror. Private banker Thomas Graf stayed up half the night of Sept. 11, switching channels from CNN to BBC to CNBC as hijacked-jets-turned-human-missiles slammed into the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. The chief representative in Asia of Lugano-based Banca del Gottardo knew many financial professionals there. Still stunned, Graf began working the phones in the morning. "It's important to talk to clients and do some hand-holding," he says somberly, "even though the private banker may not really know what to say and what to do." In this case, he knew exactly what to say: "Stay calm. Wait and see. There's no need to rush to any decision right now."
Good advice, but one that's more and more difficult to follow as stock markets everywhere melt by the day. A week after the terrorist attack, Morgan Stanley Capital International's All Country Asia Pacific ex-Japan index had fallen to 134 points, just 14 points above its nadir during the worst of the Asian crisis. Already at an 18-year low, Japan's Nikkei fell another 6.6% to 9,610 points on Sept. 12, before rebounding 3.4% to 9,939 points by Sept. 19. Despite a half-a-percentage point interest-rate cut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged a record 684 points when U.S. markets reopened Sept. 17.
The technology-laden Nasdaq slid by 6.8% to a three-year low. It may seem callous to worry about investment portfolios as the world stands on the brink of more horrific attacks and retaliation. But the responsible investor has to consider the risks to a child's college fund and his own retirement nest egg. Times like these also remind us of the need to take stock of our overall financial picture, from insurance to record-keeping to wills. Life must go on, but the destruction of America's cathedrals of finance clearly shows that the world has become a much riskier place.

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